Will July Deliver ‘Blockbuster’ Returns in the Stock Market? 10-Year Track Record Says Yes

Business News: There is a saying, "Numbers never lie," and when it comes to the stock market, it fits perfectly. Nifty has given positive returns in the month of July 9 times in the last 10 years. According to experts, the July deal can prove to be a very profitable deal for investors. This is behind the strong macroeconomic indicators, global stability, and the trust of foreign investors.

July track record in the last 10 years

According to the data, the month of July has been harmful only in 2019 in the last 10 years, when the Nifty had fallen by 5.69%. Conversely:

• Nifty made a strong jump of 8.73% in 2022
• 7.49% return in 2020 (Covid Year)
• 0.26% in 2021
• 2.94% in 2023
• 3.92% in 2024

It is clear from these figures that the month of July usually supports the 'Bulish' trend, especially when there has been some decline in June.

What are the signs of a boom in July?

Control of inflation: The recent 11% fall in crude oil prices has given relief on the inflation front. Along with this, the strength of 1.3% in the rupee is considered to be the best weekly performance since January 2023.

FII's strong return: Sudip Shah, technical expert at SBI Securities, said that FII has become a pure buyer for the fourth consecutive month. In the beginning of July, foreign investors invested over Rs 12,500 crore, which is the largest figure in the last eight months.

• Global factors are also giving support
• Middle East reduction in tension
• Possibility to cut rates by Federal Reserve
• Progress in America-India trade talks

All these factors together are making the wall street bullish.  

Not only seasonal trends, strong fundamentals are also causes

Experts believe that this time's boom is not only seasonal but also due to strong fundamental factors. This includes aspects such as GST collection, GDP growth estimate, rupee, crude, and foreign investment.

PL Capital Advisor Head Vikram Kasat said, "The market will get better liquidity support in July. Also, global and domestic signals are making it an ideal time for investment."

Why is July special for investors?

• Positive returns received in July 9 times out of 10 times
• Strong foreign investment flow
• Crude oil prices fall
• strong rupee
• Global stability and expect corporate results

Given all these factors, experts believe that July may prove to be a 'blockbuster month' for the Nifty and other market indexes.